India: 4th Largest coast-line Can become World leader in Ship building and maritime industry

India has 4rth largest coast line in Asia just behind Indonesia, japan, china. Has not been used effectively for Economic good.
Simple statistics : Maritime Economic Index MEI , india ranks much higher than its present utilisation. MEI is designated to considered equivalent to HDI due its influences on many parameters especially monetary once. Although Human development Index takes education, health, maternity rate, maternity death etc into account so its different from MEI. But potential of MEI is very huge for coastal states like in India
Each state can do its bit. India imports 240 billion dollar of goods and Export around 170 billion dollars. Total trade in around 1/2 trillion dollars every year.
30,00,000 crore rupees of trade every year. Not only that it sits on important sea highway from middle east towards pacific.
So There can be many Sea faring companies which can take goods from any part of world and transport to any part of the world. So if we take this into account total value is much large. Even States UP, Bihar if they can make vessel run on ganga possible it will not only keep ganga clean also it will increase tourism to very large Extent.
There are no cruise Ship tourism currently in India although oppurtunity is very large for running ship from
Cruise ship west coast: west coast towards lakshdeep, maldives and back to goa, Gujarat, maharashtra, Karnataka,
Cruise East :Even on east cost on tamil nadu, AP orissa, West bengal towards lakshdeep and back. you get so many coral island in between. Blue beaches and white sand.
Economic opportunity in this Can only be developed if there is competing ship building companies in India in every state should compete with other space exist for all.
Calcualtion total Trade value:
1. Import+ Export: 30,00,000 crore.
2. International trade: 30,00,000 crore + it will more only but detailed below.
3. Tourism: 10% of 40 billion= 4 billion (lower side only)
As its a new area came up in chart it can take up a lot more than 10%. Also there are other related tourism out of total 100 billion tourism which india can attract let say 20% can be attracted here.

Tourism Sector India : 100 billion dollar opportunity untapped (calculation)

So it adds upto 20+4+ 20 Ship building due to cheap manpower (
http://swaminomics.org/ship-building-indias-next-star-industry/ 
Even Right now countries where labour rates are 5 times india like china have 12 billion Export in ship building. There is enough space for both china and India.
China can take itself from 12 to 50 billion dollar.
While india from present 2 can take to 20 billion in next 3 yrs.
So total min = 44 billion dollar Forex Earning per year.
Now distribute this wealth to 9 sea states in india.
Average around 5 billion dollar for each state. and not divide by population in these states of around 35 crore or .35 billion population per capita it come to
44/0.35= 125 dollar per year.
And effect of this on other tertiary sectors of around 125 dollar per person by way of secondary manpower. considering 1:1 ratio ( actually it would be 1:3 or 1:5).
So total conservative Estimate per capita increase by 250 dollar in next 3 yrs itself.
from present average 1500 dollar to inflation adjusted 1750 dollar or increase of 16% with that put inflation and other factor. if 7% inflation taken into factor.
it may affect 300 dollar per year or 18,000 rupees income to every person in these state due to Ship industry.
Addition to this is attaching another analysis. India is famously position for steel building having large iron and coal ores. India is lowest cost steel producer in world.

Manpower cost in India in 1/5 th of china.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_wages_by_country
Not only it can supplement into huge trade imbalance or trade deficit of around 100-200 billion dollar Every year. Thus giving Government quick arsenal to reduce every current account and trade deficit.
These are Easily achievable targets in next 3 yrs. 44 billion dollar per year reduction in 150 billion dollar trade deficit india is having.It would be very much needed As there is always fluctuation in IT sector going forward. The rates of Oil is also fluctuating So india would in difficult position if this is not done.
Note: There is no Meritime/Ship buidling University in India
India require increase in manpower of about 20% Every Year.
Why Goverment not focusing quickly in these sector?
– if it ends Unemployment in india engineering youth and bring forex in large to help stabilize rupee and bring forex trade deficit down from varying avg 130 billion to about 90 billion
Especially when India is going to election and most south,west , east sea faring states are very crucial Even opposition is targeting them along with ruling party. Giving them this vision for industry and sea linked to them. Sea gives all people there emotional bond with is not comparable with any other thought.

Common Wealth Vs Un-common Wealth for Common Man

Countries Like UK, ireland, cannda, Australia they come under common wealth countries.
Traditionally they were ruled by common denominator the Numerator kept fluctuating though over period of time. What is good for one country may not be good of other everyone has its choices, everyone tries to optimize opportunities available to trade.
( This Article is written in general sense not to hurt any sentiment if any)
What are then can be categorized Un-Common wealth countries? Those countries which never had this common wealth but generated wealth on there own over period of time.
There are are basically two category of English speaking countries for Common Man to migrate One is CommonWealth other is Un-commonwealth countries.
The Un-common wealth countries have greater focus on enterprise to create wealth over period of time. Having said that Even Common-Wealth has on later half of century focus on Enterprise. So the culture of Enterprise is building up in Common wealth. Whereas Uncommon Wealth countries did start and rose from scratch due to enterprise power.
Still you can see though the traces of Common Wealth in countries and which will ever remain. It is just how things came up in history in particular area.
Where are those traces exist? Actually you can Easily See it I do not want to focus on that right now.
Un-Common wealth: Which was not Actually common than common wealth did come up over period of time with trial-error of enterprise and economic policies. Why I say trial and error because in between there were periods of learning from great depression those were period of error which gave new rooms for innovation, careful calibration, refinement in economic policies from where new models of Keynesian economics were implemented.
We know GDP growth Rate = C+G + I + E -X
G Government Expenditure, I Investment, E Export, X import, C private consumption.
Reduction is interest rate upped The C and I while government increased its G which lead to revival and growth but before this lets Say say’s law was in use. But I am not Economist to get into details point I am making is “Every Chaos bring Innovation”.
Un-Common wealth Countries had to go through lot of Chaos which brought these economic, technological , social innovations which brougth lot of Common Wealth to Un-common wealth countries hence increasing the employment and growth Chances.

Even today many countries have to keep date with past and traditions restricting the scope of innovations and enterprise and hence in a way reducing there chances to create employment and growth which comes with enterprise.
So For Common Man it would be nice to migrate to Common Wealth or To Un-common Wealth countries. Its tricky question
But Un-Common is actually Common and Common is actually un-common.
Are you getting what I mean here?
There is saying in Hindi which goes like this ” The person Who say he prays to God a lot or too much religious actually when you go deep he/she actually not religious enough his thought pattern is like that.”
That is same concept which is going here:
Every Common Wealth is actually Un-common While Actually Un-common wealth is actually Common wealth.

Reason for Falling Indian rupee

6 reasons:
1. Current account deficit : due to huge trade imbalance imports – Exports= 100 billion dollar last 5 yrs  its between 60-100 billion dollar defict…last 10 yrs it exist.No country has such huge deficit its only next to USA. for poor country like india its big task.
2. FII money : which comes through stock routes also called fast money used to create artificial Dollar requirements for Import. Instead of using that money for development its used to plug in fiscal deficit and Current Account deficit.
3. No Export competitiveness: What is specialized Export from India can you name one where India is second to non.. Like china in 200+ manufacturing items, games, electronics goods, computer , torches etc etc… India u say software but what India does ins only services which many other country also provide…See 2,00,000 people infosys market value 40 billion dollar . while 2,000 people biadu search engine team from china has same 40 billion dollar market value. who is more effective or productive…
4. power of influence: Failure in foreign relations.
5. power of trade economics: world top 20 bank india no entry china 7, top steel producers india 2  china 5 etc…Where is power of scale? despite having manpower and iron and coal deposit.
6. small regional parties absolutely no leadership see UP for example: it was 2nd richest state in India.What it is now? second poorest state only next to bihar.. last 20 yrs of caste based rules and not thinking about economic upliftment of poor only personal gains and divide society by caste and creed.
proof: see this go to last column per capita GDP INR there is small sort button there see sorted list by states:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_states_by_GDP
There are Endless other like food security bill for populism where will it end..ultimately indirect tax to collect 2,00,000 crore needed for it..
Read this as well:
https://sandyclassic.wordpress.com/2013/07/27/india-economic-problem-are-also-solution-for-its-future/

Why India is worst performing economy in BRIC from 2000 to 2010?

Every Indian must read:
India has worst tax to GDP ratio in all BRIC nations who are decreasing there debt with FDI comming in why India is increasing its debt? Quoting all references below from authentic sources.
Russia in same years decreased its debt from 59.9% to now 9%
China maintained debt at 17% of GDP.
South Africa ratio also decreased from 425 to 35%.
Brazil from 66% to 64%
India 65% to 75%.. (Where 10% of GDP gone?) in terms on money figure ( india GDP 1500 billion dollar 10% of it 150 billion for 10 yrs its 1500 billion dollar ? is it channel through stock into stock exchange or its in politicians pocket? Who will answer ?
Last 10 years of reform: India’s debt increased from 75% to 90% despite so much expansion in economy. All other BRIC nation debt has come down..on account of as FDI come it efficieny increases and borrowing need decrease also from selling of assets.
(reform not only means bringing FDI it means improving internal delivery processes).
Brazil, China, Russia all decreased there debt and benefited from reform what about india? India increased debt from
For reference I pasting old articles in news in 2004 that foreign investment helped india to cut its debt.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/keyword/debt-to-gdp-ratio
How much hope ful were we 1999 tax to GDP ratio was 65% in 2009 its 75%.
http://www.bricsindia.in/brics-report.pdf got to table 1.11 you can find Tax to GDP over years.

2. With inflation remain in two digits 10% what’s use of average 6% growth rate.

3. Competitiveness also no increased over period of time.

4. Attracting FDI india is losing as destination of choice in BRIC.

5. Corruptions and scam have eaten away most of the growth money not coming into people hands going inot there dummy accounts offshore accounts every where from cricket to film to companies board looks under control fo corruption wanting public money..even there signs they may be under control of underworld god knows may be channelizing money into terrorist fundings etc…

Economic slowdown Problem lesson and solution

Einstein: Predicted the Economic slowdown and related problems caused due to over use of mathematics when he said.
Albert Einstein said “Elegance is for tailors warning against mathematics do not believe in it only because its beautiful formulae”.
A monster called Synthetic CDO which was created caused the episode Financial crisis Investment banking fund demonstrated this overindulgence with mathematics..Sentiments are Psychology and sociology, the fundamentals are economics, finance and Mathematics is just calculation…What buddha said everything is in balance who can balance who is equal in all areas..who can do justice to each area and no preference of one. Its easy to make 200 rupees from 100 rupees but its difficult to make 200 crore from hundred crore because it averages out..hedge funds invest in bulk in big ticket investment which has similar effect the Macro and micro Economics conditions from time to time influences the particular sector with high growth trajectory..but the is law of diminishing marginal utility which when applied to market reads out..as more and more market absorb money the return averages out.person increases consumption of a product – while keeping consumption of other products constant – there is a decline in the marginal utility that person derives from consuming each additional unit of that product.

The utility of sector such as now biotech decreases out as more and more its absorbed in market. same way as we consume sweet first time we feel its very sweet as well marginally increase sweet amount of value we drive from it single unit decreses marginally

In buffet-style restaurants operate. They entice you with “all you can eat,” all the while knowing each additional plate of food provides less utility than the one before. And despite their enticement, most people will eat only until the utility they derive from additional food is slightly lower than the original.
Excellent Example: say you go to a buffet and the first plate of food you eat is very good. On a scale of ten you would give it a ten. Now your hunger has been somewhat tamed, but you get another full plate of food. Since you’re not as hungry, your enjoyment rates at a seven at best. Most people would stop before their utility drops even more, but say you go back to eat a third full plate of food and your utility drops even more to a three. If you kept eating, you would eventually reach a point at which your eating makes you sick, providing dissatisfaction, or ‘dis-utility’.

Quant of Investment banking depend on complex mathematics to predict interest rate of future, or how volatile interest rate in future,or prepayment be in future and translate into price depends on your view but mathematics did not cause financial crisis its the greed which caused financial crisis.It  can be corrected to win win for everyone what is needed is middle path which drives equal respect to Economics,Mathematics,Psychology,Sociology are are equally important.Mathematics is just medium if we do not quantise everything we cannot relate and predict it would be worst situation.But problem is actually these models are not predicting they are a views you drive..no body can predict in accuracy how many people are going to prepay there mortages or are going to default in future, or how many company are going to default in future.Its put in algorithms and then for sometime its very statisfying to see everything working according to it.CDO were excellent instruments where anyone get to choose from all risk first packaged into one bond then it can be sliced and diced based on risk you want to take you get to choose the slice.To Sell CDO you need to have big profit margin to cover risk or margin for error.When diminishing marginal utility comes into picture..First utility is great so everyone wants to enter in CDO then more people enter the competition increases the profit margin shrinks. the CDO brand then gets commoditized  which leads to fall in profit which investment banking firms take..so it profit decrease but margin for error is same..as more people enter market in CDO the size of investment becomes huge leading to fall in profit..and making it exposed to risk of margin of error which is not covered due to increased competition.Danger of mathematics credit derivatives become evident.

Minimal computation: abstarct manipulation of symbols,ability to see patterns in abstract mathematical symbol.Like probability of  housing loan defaults happening with behaviour of two companies going independently vis correlation the factors of probability of risk is high..how these mortgages interest with each other..but this is not problem then assumptions are made on top of it then its incorporated into model.